L.I.F.E. Newsletter October 2021
Abundance is Personal.
Achieving it is Practical.
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We finally have the market jitters we were expecting. In our August newsletter, we mentioned that it had been almost a year since we had a 5% pullback in the S&P 500. Well, sure enough, the market has pulled back 5% from the high on September 2, 2001, spurred by concerns over the debt ceiling and fears of the Chinese real estate company, Evergrande, defaulting.
The question is, “Has the market reached its near-term low?” We’re not sure yet, but are watching the market action carefully looking for that answer. We would really like to see a cumulative drawdown of 10% before we deploy the cash set aside. This level corresponds to the average price of the S&P 500 over the last 200 days.*
Additionally, as anticipated, interest rates on the 10-year Treasury rose from 1.30% on September 1, 2021, to 1.61% as of October 11, 2021. This was a benefit to the investments we’ve favored namely: Financials and Small Cap companies. Ultimately, we are still very optimistic in the intermediate term particularly with the historical strength in the fourth quarter.
Creamy Chicken and Pumpkin Alfredo
Nothing says autumn more than a dish with pumpkin and this recipe promises to be the perfect comfort food for an autumn day.
Change May Bring Opportunities
One constant in life is change. During the past year and a half, we have experienced more change than any of us bargained for. Change is disruptive—but also brings opportunities. For investors right now, there is no shortage of changes to think about, but those changes may set the stage for the next leg higher for this powerful and still relatively young bull market.
The trajectory of the U.S. economy has changed recently because of the Delta variant of COVID-19 and related disruptions to companies’ supply chains. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s estimate, the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter is tracking to just 1%, down from 6% two months ago. Rather than the start of a new downtrend, however, we expect growth to pick up through year-end as further progress is made beating COVID-19.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) may experience a big change early next year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term is up in February and his reappointment by President Biden is not assured. Mr. Powell’s progressive critics don’t believe he is tough enough on banks. The Fed is also about to start tapering its massive $120 billion per month bond-buying program before embarking on an interest rate−hiking campaign. That’s a lot of change.
One thing we hope doesn’t change is that the U.S. government keeps paying its bills. The debt ceiling, which has been raised 78 times since 1960, will need to be raised by October 18, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen—or the country could (inconceivably) default on its debt. Congress will figure out a way to get this done but the political game of chicken could cause some jitters for markets if not resolved quickly.
Democratic policymakers are trying to effect a lot of change with the nearly $5 trillion in proposed spending on infrastructure and social programs. The two proposals will likely be scaled back closer to a combined $3 trillion to secure support from moderate Democrats (the $1.2 trillion hard infrastructure package has bipartisan support). This spending will come with tax increases to help pay for it, but that won’t stop the federal debt from piling up. Thankfully that debt is cheap to service with interest rates still low.
That’s a lot of change. These changes create uncertainty, but markets may have already priced them in. The outlook for the U.S. economy still looks bright. Corporate profits are growing strongly. Low-interest rates are supportive, and while inflation is still elevated, the worst of it may be behind us.
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
All data is provided as of October 1, 2021.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.
All index data from FactSet.
This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.