LIFE Newsletter July 2025
Life Lessons
”Let us not become weary in doing good, for at the proper time we will reap a harvest if we do not give up. ”
Galatians 6:9 (NIV)
Investment Updates
Per LPL Research’s Global Portfolio Strategy Report – For complete copy of the report, click here.
INVESTMENT TAKEAWAYS:
– A neutral stance toward U.S. equities as elevated valuations amid limited corporate visibility and a cooling economy (that likely skirts recession) offset the opportunity for a meaningful upside, in our view, even with lowered tariffs.
– The Committee favors growth over value for exposure to the AI theme and compelling earnings growth, at a premium, as the economy slows.
– The Committee favors large caps over small caps for their balance sheet quality and better position to manage tariffs.
– The Committee recommends well diversified regional exposures, with benchmark-level allocations to the U.S., developed international, and emerging markets. Non-U.S. equities offer upside from a potentially weaker U.S. dollar.
– Within fixed income, the STAAC holds a neutral weight in core bonds, with a slight preference for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) over investment-grade corporates. The Committee believes the risk-reward for core bond sectors (U.S. Treasury, agency MBS, investment-grade corporates) is more attractive than plus sectors.
This research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Faith in Action
Bringing Hope and Redemption: The Mission of Ambassadors of Reconciliation Ministries
Ambassadors of Reconciliation Ministries (ARM) is a nonprofit organization dedicated to leading inmates at the Butte County Jail in Oroville, CA, to Christ and helping them live for Him. Since its founding in 2012, ARM has been committed to transforming lives through the message of redemption and reconciliation.
ARM’s mission is to see the Christian community in Butte County unite across social, ethnic, economic, and denominational lines to meet the spiritual, emotional, and practical needs of inmates, families, and staff in the Butte County Jail. The organization provides biblical training, mentorship, and support to help inmates transition from incarceration into socially and spiritually productive life patterns.
Through its programs, ARM equips Certified Jail Ministers to provide weekly visits to inmates, offering discipleship and guidance. The ministry also assists with connecting inmates to transitional resources and helps families communicate with their incarcerated loved ones. ARM operates independently of any church, denomination, or government agency, relying on the support of volunteers and donations from the community.
If you would like more information or are feeling inclined to give to this cause you can find more information here:
Economic Update
As Americans get their grills and beach chairs ready for the July 4th holiday, the stock market and the weather across much of the country have both been on heaters. Stocks and bonds continue to effectively navigate a complex policy landscape shaped by evolving trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal stimulus. The market’s resilience in the face of these crosscurrents has been impressive, proving yet again that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and corporate America can withstand a lot.
In a volatile first half, the S&P 500 completed an impressive recovery from the April lows to end June at a fresh record high. The round trip from the February 19 high to the April 2 low and back, in slightly over four months, was one of the fastest recoveries on record from a 10–20% correction. Importantly, history tells us stocks tend to go higher after recovering correction losses, with average gains of 9.6% and 16.2% in the subsequent six and 12 months.
Several factors helped fuel this rally:
– Israel-Iran cease-fire and resulting lower oil prices and lower interest rates • Progress on trade deals and, so far, little evidence of tariff-driven inflation
– Stimulus from the pending tax cuts and spending bill
– Firming expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and related weakness in the U.S. dollar
– Resurgence in demand for artificial intelligence (AI) investments
– Buying by under-invested institutions trying to keep up with the rally
While history suggests achieving new highs may bode well for the rest of the year, we know stocks don’t go up in a straight line. Several obstacles lie ahead. Perhaps the biggest one is the yet-to-be-felt effects of tariffs on companies’ profit margins. With stock valuations elevated (as they’ve been for a while), earnings will be key to further upside. Potentially higher interest rates from additional deficit spending are another risk to monitor. And as always, geopolitics are a wild card.
We continue to monitor the macroeconomic backdrop, corporate fundamentals, policy developments, and technical indicators to guide our outlook. We believe the foundation for continued economic growth is intact, supported by resilient consumer spending, a healthy job market, modest earnings growth despite tariffs, the likely resumption of Fed rate cuts this fall, and the stimulus from the pending reconciliation bill. Staying invested and well-diversified while looking for opportunities to potentially add equities on weakness remains the prudent approach for this market environment.
As always, please reach out to me with questions.
Sincerely,
David Laut
CEO, Certified Financial Planner™
O / 916-846-7780
A / 4180 Douglas Blvd. Suite 200, Granite Bay, CA 95746
Important Information
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.
All index data from FactSet.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
For a list of descriptions of the indexes and economic terms referenced, please visit our website here.
